Who had the better business model going in? Easily the WWE. Their target demo will return next week. The fickle everyman that TNA was targeting will probably stay only until the "American Idol" season premiere. Honestly, no matter how well booked next week's TNA show is (and the Monday night show was VERY well-booked), the surprise factor was spent in full on one show. There is absolutely no one (other than Vince McMahon himself) who could appear on next week's iMPACT and have the, uh, the...uh...impact that the ten debuts did last Monday night.
No matter how you slice it, the WWE wins.
Winner: WWE
2. Did they reach the target demographic?
The ratings will tell the tale here, but my guess is that the quarter-hour & demographic breakdown will show an increase from the usual Thursday night 1.1 for TNA & maybe the slightest drop from the normal Monday night 3.3 for the WWE. WWE wins.
But, who will gain the long-term momentum from the Monday night head-to-head? For one week -- its TNA. The casual fan will return next week, just because of the WOW factor from TNA's Monday night offering. Unfortunately, there are no more debuts to shock the hell out of everyone next week. This will not be felt in the ratings, however, until week three, or maybe four. By then, TNA hopes that the booking will hold the viewers attention instead of the "Holy Sh!t!" surprise debuts. Good luck. That same booking has garnered a 1.1 rating for three years with WAY better talent.
Remember this: when WCW started the nWo angle in 1996, we did not introduce the second name (Kevin Nash) until three weeks into the angle. The "third man" was not named until seven weeks in. Ten weeks = three names. TNA introduced ten names in one night. Now, I realize the attention span of the average wrestling fan in 2010 is no longer than...hey, there goes a squirrel.
The WWE reached their target demographic, paid them off handsomely with incredible performances by Bret Hart & Shawn Michaels, and promised to deliver more when the smirking bastard Vince McMahon cod-shot Bret Hart right in the center of the ring! (sorry...I'm okay now.)
Winner: TNA (just barely)
3. Was this an entertaining television program?
Absolutely. Both shows hit a home run. TNA showcased its home-grown talent while riding the coat-tails of the geezer brigade that brought them extra viewers. WWE resurrected an angle that has been deader than Katie Vick for 12 years and still made me care.
But a home run in the first inning does not a win make. Just ask any member of the "Red Sox Nation." TNA swung for the fences & hit a homer, but has no hit-for-average guys left in the line-up. The WWE lives & dies by the single & sacrifice. They have eight innings left. And Steve Austin getting warm in the bullpen.
Winner: WWE
4. Do I want to watch next week's show?
Are you kidding? Will Bret Hart be back to kick Vince in his shriveled, prune-like balls and prove once & for all that...(breathe...breathe...)...Will Hulk Hogan confront Mick Foley? What's up with Sting? Where the hell is Scott Steiner!? Can I get Daffney's home number!? Wait, sorry. Scratch that last one.
Mike Tyson does not make me want to watch RAW. Sorry. He just doesn't. But TNA whetted my appetite enough to make me tune in next week (even assuming I will be disappointed).
Winner: TNA (just barely)
So...
It's a push. The proverbial sister-kiss. For a wrestling fan (at least for one week), the war was back! The real question is whether it will last past January 11th. "American Idol" returns January 12th on FOX.
